Program of the October 4-5, 2002 meetings at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank "Conference on Nominal and Real Convergence of Accession Countries"
and
"1st Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research"
Aims
October 3 Thursday
13:30 – 14:00 Registration
14:00-14:15 Welcome speech by vice governor Peter Adamecz
Conference on Nominal and Real Convergence of Accession Countries
Chairman: Hamecz, István (MNB)
14:30 – 15:15
“On The Estimated Size of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in CEC5 Countries”
Prepared by the CEC5 Central Banks
Paper presented by: Kovács, Mihály (MNB)
15:15 – 16:15
General discussion
16: 15 – 16:45 Coffee break
16:45 – 17:30
“Adopting the Euro in Hungary: Expected Benefits, Costs and Timing”
Prepared by a team at the National Bank of Hungary
Paper presented by: Csajbók, Attila (MNB)
17:30 – 18:30
General discussion
19:00 Reception given by Governor Zsigmond Járai
1st Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research
October 4 Friday
Session I:Keynote speach
9:00 – 9:45
Henry, Jérôme (ECB): Modelling activities in the ECB
9:45 – 10:00 Coffee break
Session II: Theory of Monetary Policy
10:00 – 13:00
Chairman: Simon, András (MNB)
Berg, Claes (Sveriges Riksbank): Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? Some Swedish Experiences
Paper
Discussant: Jakab, Zoltán (MNB)
Benczúr, Péter (MNB): The behavior of the nominal exchange rate at the beginning of disinflations
Paper
Discussant: Henry, Jérôme (ECB)
Sinclair, Peter (Bank of England): Should Currency Be Taxed?
Paper
Discussant: Világi, Balázs (MNB)
13:00 Lunch
Session II: on Theory of Monetary Policy, cont'd
14:00 – 14:50
Csermely, Ágnes – Vonnák, Balázs (MNB): The role of the exchange rate in the transmission mechanism in Hungary
Paper
Discussant: Korhonen, Iikka (Soumen Pankki)
Session III: EMU Accession
14:50 – 16:30
Chairman: Sinclar, Peter (Bank of England)
Van de Coevering, Clement (De Nederlandsche Bank): EU Accession countries and the need for structural convergence and institutional development
Paper
Discussant: Rostowski, Jacek (National Bank of Poland)
Schardax, Franz (Oesterreichische Nationalbank): An Early Warning Model for Currency Crises in Central and Eastern Europe
Paper
Discussant: Jochem, Axel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
16:30 – 16:50 Coffee break
Session III: on EMU Accession, cont'd
16:50 – 18:30
Jochem, Axel(Deutsche Bundesbank): EU-enlargement and financial integration of CEE accession countries
Paper
Discussant: Darvas, Zsolt (MNB)
Discussion
Chmielewski, Tomasz (National Bank of Poland): Searching for Optimal Balance between Nominal and Real Convergence - Case of Poland
Paper
Discussant: Brucháčová, Anna (National Bank of Slovakia)
19:00 Dinner given by Vice-governor György Szapáry
October 5, Saturday
Session IV: Macromodelling
9:00 – 10:40
Chairman: Berg, Claes (Sveriges Riksbank)
Simon, András–Várpalotai, Viktor (MNB): Precaution, optimal external debt and fully non-Ricardian behavior
Paper
Discussant: Sinclar, Peter (Bank of England)
Világi, Balázs (MNB): Disinflation and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of asymmetric sectoral shocks
Paper
Discussant: Adahl, Martin (Sveriges Riksbank)
10:40 – 11:00 Coffee break
Session IV. on Macromodelling, cont'd
11:00 – 12:40
Vavra, David (Ceska Narodni Banka): The Czech economic transition: exploring options using a macrosectoral model
Paper
Discussant: Peeters, Marga (De Nederlandsche Bank)
Kotlán, Viktor (Ceska Narodni Banka): Inflation Forecasts and the Constant Interest rate Assumption
Paper
Discussant: Ferenczi, Barnabás (MNB)
13:00 Lunch
List of Participants