4th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on
Nominal Exchange Rates and the Real Economy
September 29-30, 2005
Budapest, Hungary
Organised by The Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in collaboration with The
Centre of Central Banking Studies (CCBS), of The Bank of England
September 29, Thursday
9:00 – 9:30 Registration
(Magyar Nemzeti Bank V Building, Address: Vadász u. 16.)
9:30 – 9:40 Welcome address
György Szapáry (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Session 1
Chair: Áron Gereben (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
9:40 – 10:30
Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England): Testing for ARCH against Nonlinearity: An Application to the Exchange rate (joint with George Kapetanios, Bank of England)
Discussant: Gábor Kőrösi (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Central European University)
Paper
10:30 – 11:20
Gunther Schnabl (Tübingen and European Central Bank): Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe (joint with Paul De Grauwe, Leuven)
Discussant: Peter Backé (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Paper
11:20 – 12:10
Jan Groen (Bank of England): Fundamentals Based Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited
Discussant: Carlo Altavilla (University of Naples)
Paper
12:10 – 13:30 Lunch
Session 2
Chair: Jacek Rostowski (Central European University)
13:30 – 14:20
Keynote Speech
Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank): Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?
Paper
14:20 – 15:10
Lawrence J. Christiano (Northwestern): Optimal Monetary Policy in a ‘Sudden Stop’ (joint with Fabio Braggion, Northwestern and Tilburg, and Jorge Roldos, International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Ákos Valentinyi (University of Southampton)
Paper
15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break
Session 3
Chair: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
15:30 – 16:20
Fabio M. Natalucci (Federal Reserve Board): The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in New EU Member Countries (joint with Federico Ravenna, UC Santa Cruz)
Discussant: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Paper
16:20 – 17:10
Péter Benczúr (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): A Flexible Price Theory of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Output (joint with István Kónya, Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)
Discussant: Andrew Blake (Bank of England)
Paper
19:30 Reception (Magyar Nemzeti Bank Main Building, Address: Szabadság tér 8-9)
September 30, Friday
Session 4
Chair: Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank)
9:30 – 10:20
Keynote Speech
Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee): Can information heterogeneity explain the various puzzles in the foreign exchange market?
Paper1
Paper2
Paper3
10:20 – 11:10
Luca Dedola (European Central Bank): DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through (joint with Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute and Sylvain Leduc, Federal Reserve Board)
Discussant: István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)
Paper
11:10 – 12:00
István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): Economic Development, Exchange Rates, and the Structure of Trade
Discussant: Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee)
Paper
12:00 – 13:30 Lunch
Session 5
Chair: Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England
13:30 – 14:20
Jesper Linde (Riksbank): Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through (joint with Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, and Mattias Villani, Riksbank)
Discussant: Jean Pierre Villetelle (Banque de France)
Paper
14:20 – 15:10
Niels Beier (Bank of Denmark): International Transmission of Transitory and Persistent Shocks under Imperfect Information (joint with Torben Andersen, University of Aarhus)
Discussant: Zoltán M. Jakab (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Paper
15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break
Session 6
Chair: Attila Csajbók (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
15:30 – 16:20
Michael Dotsey (Philadelphia FED): Non-tradable Retail Services and Alternative Price Setting (joint with Margarida Duarte, Carnegie Mellon and Richmond FED)
Discussant: Attila Rátfai (Central European University)
Paper
16:20 – 17:10
Nooman Rebei (Bank of Canada): Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada? (joint with Hafedh Bouakez, HEC Montreal)
Discussant: Balázs Vonnák (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Paper
19:30 Danube cruise with dinner
Map
Guide
For more information please contact:
MNB-CCBS Workshop 2005
Organising committee:
Péter Benczúr (Head of the Research Division, MNB)
Andrew Blake (Advisor, CCBS)
Gill Hammond (Deputy Director of the CCBS, BoE)
István Kónya (Senior Researcher, Research Division, MNB)