Liquidity forecast
Based on the decision of Monetary Council of 6 September 2010 the Bank will publish its forecasts of the factors affecting the banking sector’s liquidity need from 14 September 2010. The aim of the forecasts is to facilitate the optimal recourse to the Bank’s main policy instrument through supporting credit institutions’ liquidity management and to ensure that credit institutions rely increasingly less on the overnight standing lending and deposit facilities.
Liquidity forecast of MNB gives the most support to liquidity management of banking sector if it provides guideline for the optimum volume of 2-week MNB bill. Hence, MNB publishes the average effect of instruments influencing level of HUF liquidity concerning the next 7 days compared with Tuesday on every Wednesday 9 am before MNB bill auction. In case of holiday the date of bill auction can change that is followed by the liquidity forecast as well. The published value shows the difference between the liquidity of reference day (Tuesday) and the average liquidity of the 7-days period from Wednesday to next Tuesday. Banking sector HUF liquidity is determined by the following instruments:
Counterparties should be aware of the fact that, due primarily to the difficulty of forecasting the balance on the Treasury account, the Bank is able to estimate the expected size of the banking sector’s liquidity only with considerable uncertainty. Therefore, the Bank does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of forecasts, and it will neither publish nor comment on any deviation of the forecasts from actual liquidity subsequently.
Press release of Monetary Council decision of 6 September 2010
Press release of Monetary Council decision of 6 June 2011
Molnár, Zoltán: About the interbank HUF liquidity - what does the MNB’s new liquidity forecast show? (MNB Bulletin, December 2010)